Beltway and California Scholars Discuss Voters, Ethnicity and Reality of 2008 Primary Season

Jan. 23, 2008

Two weeks before the Super Tuesday primaries, political observers analyzed voting and demographic trends and concluded that little is predictable about the 2008 presidential race.  From the shifting face of suburbia to the emergence of influential ethnic and generational groups, all indications point to a volatile electorate, a competitive race and possibly even brokered conventions.

Writer and editor Rhodes Cook noted that even in Sun Belt GOP strongholds, the suburbs that house swing voters are looking increasingly urban and Democratic with age.  Among the regions seeing notable Democratic gains is Northern Virginia, where Cook has lived since 1980.  Not only is Fairfax County largely Democratic, but the blue is seeping into outlying suburbs of Loudon and Prince William counties, where the central issue is no longer white flight but "sprawl crawl." 

On the other hand, countered Janelle Wong, Republican-leaning evangelical Christians represent one in four voters -- numbers that could form a critical voting bloc in this election.    Wong, a professor at the University of Southern California, criticized stereotypes of evangelicals that depict them as uni-dimensional Bush voters "obsessed with abortion and fearing gays and lesbians."  The evangelical community is anything but homogenous, said Wong, and includes such diverse communities as African American Baptists, Latino pentecostals, and Korean immigrants attending megachurches.  When interviewed, she said, almost all evangelicals reject the "religious" label -- despite attending church regularly, listening to Christian radio stations, and sending their children to religious schools.  Evangelicals, said Wong, prefer the term "spiritual." 

Leadership of the evangelical movement is also more decentralized and diffused, Wong said.  Easy-to-identify leaders such as Jerry Falwell and James Dobson have been supplanted by Rick Warren, Tim LaHaye, and Sam Rodriguez, and by movements such as the Wallbuilders.  The more diverse leadership is translating to a broader agenda, as the evangelical movement has begun to embrace social issues, human rights and environmental causes.  Younger evangelicals, although more strongly anti-abortion than their elders, are less hostile to gays and lesbians, more pluralistic and open to other faiths and more independent in their voting.  

A professor at the University of California, Irvine, and expert on Latino identity and politics, Lisa Garcia Bedolla noted that Hispanics represent another set of voters expected to play a key role in the election. Hispanics, she emphasized,  do not fall as solidly in the Democratic column as do African Americans and are up for grabs when it comes to party affiliation.  What's more, voters of Cuban descent differ from Puerto Ricans in their political leanings, and Puerto Ricans in one state differ from Puerto Ricans in another. 

"There's no model for a Latino vote," concluded Bedolla.  "I'm here to tell you, there is no 'Latin vote'!" 

Aside from diversity of backgrounds, Bedolla noted, she has found many intangibles that make it tricky to predict voter behavior.  "What I'm learning from this campaign," she said, "is that people vote for who they like, and come up with reasons after."

Another group of voters expected to have an impact, said demographer William Frey, is the 18- to 25-year-olds.   Voter participation among youth was up in 2004, and Barack Obama's appeal to that group suggests a high turnout this fall.  "They're going to make a difference," Frey predicted, while cautioning that the youth will not vote in lockstep. 

Wong agreed that younger voters will have an impact that is difficult to assess through polls, since the target group moves around and has little voting history.  And moderator Alan Ehrenhalt reminded the audience that President Franklin D. Roosevelt built majorities "not so much by changing minds . . . but by winning new voters. That's when major change happens."

Cook noted that for some time he has followed trends in affiliation in the 27 states that allow voters to register by party.  Although some observers object to his sample, saying it represents "barely half the U.S.," Cook maintains that enough big states (including California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania) participate to make the sample a good indicator of developing trends.

"It's one thing to identify yourself in polls as an independent," he said. "It's  another thing to register as an independent.  There's no one holding a gun to your head." 

In the last two decades, said Cook, the trend has favored independents.  That the number of registered independents has grown from 15 percent to one quarter of registrants since 1987 portends more unpredictability for the upcoming election, and indicates that the increase in independents cannot be attributed solely to disillusionment with the Bush administration.

"But certainly," he added, "the Bush years haven't tamped it down at all."

Asked about prospects for an independent candidacy, such as that of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Cook speculated that Bloomberg's positions on social issues and initial ties to the Democratic Party would likely siphon off more votes from a Democratic candidate.  But an independent candidate, he pointed out, cannot be successful, or even competitive, without a strong base in at least a couple of states.  While Ross Perot captured 20 percent of the popular vote in 1992, noted Cook, he won zero electoral votes.      When a member of the audience inquired about the relevance and need for the Electoral College, Bedolla responded, "I think we're capable of choosing our president.

"But will [the Electoral College] ever go away? No."

Cook recalled that one of the first pieces of legislation he covered as a young reporter was Birch Bayh's proposal to require a runoff if no presidential candidate received 40 percent of the vote.  The only candidate in history who received less than 40 percent, Cook added, was Abraham Lincoln. 

After the Electoral College "misfire" in 2000, Cook continued, he was sure the system would be "gone in a New York minute," and he was shocked by the lack of outrage.  If the results had been reversed, Cook speculated, and Bush had lost the electoral vote, "You'd have heard Rush Limbaugh and [Sean] Hannity weigh in on the subject."

Bedolla did not foresee the likelihood, either, of a brokered convention or campaign finance reform.  The parties will not want to give up the opportunity to "brand" their candidate at the convention, she said. And the status quo will persist for the campaign process until TV stations provide free air time for candidates, and "the Supreme Court decides to change the standard that money is speech."   

Cook maintained, however, that each week the primary contest remains muddled increases the odds for a convention at which candidates will be chosen rather than merely coronated. It's a prospect, he added, that has reporters "salivating."

"The primary process is off to a fantastic start," he said. "Before, it was over by New Hampshire.  Remember, the heralded Bush - McCain contest [in 2000] only lasted four weeks."   

No matter which candidates end up on the ballot, Frey pointed out, they will have to consider a multitude of variables, avoid "pigeon hole categories," and tailor their campaigns accordingly. 

In 2004, said Frey, it would have taken just three small states (Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado) to win the election for Kerry. Fast-growing Hispanic populations in those smaller states can make the difference in 2008, if they organize and vote as a unit. 

"If you have a national message," Frey concluded, "it's going to bite you back. You're going to have to hone your argument for those populations.  I think that's the trick for a lot of this election." 

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